Syracuse, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

725
FXUS61 KBGM 041843
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
243 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Increased coverage of precipitation chances this evening and
into tonight.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Thunderstorms are expected to develop once again this
afternoon, bringing a threat of gusty winds to the Southern Tier
and southward.

2) A weak, but deepening surface low passes south of the region
Sunday evening into Monday, with widespread rain and cooler
conditions expected to start the week.

3) Upper level ridge moves west, with more seasonable
temperatures this week into next weekend along with several
chances of showers and thunderstorms.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Clouds have mostly cleared early this afternoon allowing for
heating to take place across the Southern Tier and northward.
NEPA has been sunny for much of the day and has warmed into the
90s though dew points are mixing down a bit. Wind shear is
slightly stronger today than yesterday, though the better shear
is north across the I-90 corridor. There is some uncertainty
across CNY where the shear is given the clouds and more limited
heating but cooling cloud tops over Lake Ontario indicating that
may be it wont take much instability to get storms to fire.

Across the Southern Tier and south, mesoanalysis is indicating
better mid level lapse rates despite the less shear, and DCAPE
is about the same as yesterday, over 1000 J/kg. Downburst and
Microburst are the main concern as tall cores collapse. Some of
the CAMs show a cold pool developing which could make a more
widespread wind threat across NEPA. This is a more likely
scenario given that we are on the edge of the large upper level
ridge with storm coverage likely greater than what models have.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The evolution of storms and rainfall today will help set the
stage for potential flash flood risk Sunday evening into Monday.
A broad, weak low moves slowly through the region with
scattered showers and thunderstorms accompanying it. With the
upper level ridge retrograding and surface high pressure across
New England, an axis of stronger convergence is likely across
portions of southern NY or Northern PA. HREF Probability Matched
Means are indicating some higher end rainfall of 3 to 4 inches
in 12 to 24 hours. This seems reasonable given forecast
soundings show favorable winds for training (especially along
that axis of convergence), and warm cloud depths 11K to 13K
feet.

Heavy rain today, especially in areas that could get 1 to 2
inches of rain, would be more susceptible to the flash flood
risk so a flood watch may be issued if the rain is widespread
enough.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

The upper level ridge retrogrades to the west later this
weekend and builds out west. Temperatures will be closer to
average to slightly above, with surface dew points falling back
into the 60s. This time of year, we do need to watch this
northwest flow pattern. We are still close to the edge of the
ridge, with decent low level moisture/instability each
afternoon. Shear will be higher being closer to the jet stream
so any shortwave that passes through could bring a threat for
severe weather. Also, potential ridge riding MCSs would be
possible under this flow.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Unsettled conditions this afternoon and evening as a cold front
brings showers and thunderstorms to the region. Coverage,
timing and the locations impacted remain uncertain, but mainly
expecting the timing to be 19/20Z until 0/01Z. These storms
could produce brief IFR conditions with gusty and erratic winds.

Later tonight, IFR fog will be possible, but the duration and
thickness of the fog will be dependent upon where heavy rain
from thunderstorms fall. At AVP, fog is more uncertain, so left
it out of the forecast at this time.

Outlook:

Sunday afternoon through Monday...Restrictions possible due to
showers and possibly thunderstorms.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR with a chance for showers and isolated
thunderstorms.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR with a low chance for showers, mainly at
ELM, BGM, and AVP.

Thursday...Restrictions possible with a passing frontal system
producing more widespread showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ044-047.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJG
AVIATION...ES/MPK